Where Is the Price of Oil Heading?
I think everyone is curious, with the recent surge in oil prices, about where the price of oil is heading. Are you bullish or bearish when it comes to oil prices? Obviously consumers are optimistic that prices will stay low, while conversely, oil and gas investors are praying for the days of July, 2008.
I found a recent article by Ben Levisohn in Businessweek that provided some interesting thoughts and assertions on this particular question.
The author discusses how the economic collapse spurred a surge in supply, some $600 million bbls over the actual demand. Because this surge in supply has been stemmed, the market is beginning to rebalance itself. If the market continues to rebalance, the price of oil will settle at around $75 a barrel.
Any thoughts as to the direction the price of oil is going? Are you an oil investor or are you a consumer with no investment interests in oil? Please include this in your commentary.
Posted by Corey Curwick at 9:27 PM MST on July 26, 2009
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Interesting to guess and speculate on oil price direction..
The reality is that NO ONE knows for sure..
BUT.. there are a few indicators that 99.9% of the world doesn’t even know exist that can give some clues..
One thing to keep in mind is TIME FRAME.. do you want to know the price of oil, tomorrow, next month, next year, next decade, etc.. I think if you leave timeframe out of your speculation, you are not being genuine.. article writers included..
That being said, there are the Saudis and the whole middle east region.. Where do they want oil to be? What is their economy based oil price necessary for their functioning? As anyone knows, there is nothing in the middle ease EXCEPT oil, and some very rich people.. So, would a prudent person believe that the kings and princes would just “let” the price of oil fall forever without them doing “something?” Of course not.. Many speculate that the whole “Iran” thing going on right now is to keep uncertainty in the oil market which obviously keeps prices high.. That region, if it completely stabilized, the prices of oil would drop drastically.. Do you really think that’s going to happen? It would “kill” that entire part of the world.. they have nothing else except maybe guns..
That being said, the middle east economy is based on $75 dollar oil..
The next thing is a little thing called “Platts”..
Platts is the US petroleum industry “buffer” from the small oil speculators to the major oil producers.. So, when a small oil producer sells oil, he sells it to company X, who then sells it to refinery Y.. A major just sells the oil to refinery Y, bypassing company X..
Platts is the premium or discount that company X is willing to pay the small independent oil producers..
As a small independent oil producer who wants to sell oil, you call Companys X1, X2, X3 etc, and each of them will tell you that they pay ” spot minus Z plus Platts” were Z is their discount based upon thier cost to pickup and profit etc..
Platts varies monthly..some months it can run as high as $3/bbl other months it is a discount of $1-2 dollars..
So, that is a good indicator of where the US Experts expect the price of oil to move the next month..
Knowing Platts is a very good predictor of “next months” prices..
Good luck and guessing and speculating..